Thu, Dec 20, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 111 | 013 | 132 |
| PHI | 19 | 114 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 4:04NSHNick BoninoAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:33PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 19:42NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P2 1:53NSHRyan Hartman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:09PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:09PHIIvan Provorov: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:12NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:45PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:47PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:51PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:38PHIScott Laughton: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:07NSHAnthony Bitetto: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:15PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Salomaki7:46
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Grimaldi – Gaudreau3:59
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Johansen – Hartman – Fiala10:14
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok7:26
xG 0.16–0.27 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis2:54
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi12:12
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ellis10:40
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Simmonds – Couturier10:17
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Patrick8:18
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Weise – Varone – Lindblom3:55
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny9:22
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas9:47
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Sanheim – Provorov12:11
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg10:28
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).