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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 20, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.

CGY winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TBL18214112022536
CGY31208110071437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:38TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:29CGYSam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:50CGYSean MonahanAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P1 12:25CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Adam Erne, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P2 5:52TBLAlex KillornAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
  7. P3 15:35TBLDan GirardiAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 17:32CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
  2. 2. TBL Victor Hedman scored
  3. 3. CGY Sean Monahan scored
  4. 4. TBL Brayden Point stopped
  5. 5. CGY James Neal stopped
  6. 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
  7. 7. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
  8. 8. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  9. 9. CGY Elias Lindholm stopped
  10. 10. TBL Anthony Cirelli stopped
  11. 11. CGY Noah Hanifin stopped
  12. 12. TBL Tyler Johnson stopped
  13. 13. CGY Mark Jankowski stopped
  14. 14. TBL J.T. Miller scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 0:53TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 6:19CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:01CGYOliver Kylington: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 17:31CGYTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 5:42CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
46% to win54% to win
← TBL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Lindholm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLCGY
36Shots on goal37
3.1Expected goals3.6
61Shot attempts60
33Faceoffs won36
4Power plays1
2Penalty minutes8
13Hits19
11Blocked shots14
10Giveaways10
13Takeaways21

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point7:29

    xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Killorn – Miller – Cirelli5:42

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Palat – Kucherov – Point6:11

    xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0

  4. Paquette – Erne – Martel6:18

    xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – McDonagh2:57

    xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  2. Girardi – Hedman11:28

    xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1

  3. Stralman – Hedman3:51

    xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestBacklund – Bennett – Tkachuk9:57

    xG 1.41–0.52 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1

  2. Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett4:37

    xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0

  3. Neal – Quine – Jankowski6:05

    xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  4. Neal – Quine – Ryan3:45

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamonic – Hanifin16:53

    xG 1.09–0.78 (58%)attempts 21–16goals 2–1

  2. Andersson – Kylington8:51

    xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  3. Giordano – Brodie17:54

    xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.6 xGTBL 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #60 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.59 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.

CGY winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).