Thu, Dec 20, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 2, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 18 | 18 | 228 |
| ARI | 014 | 115 | 08 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:22MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:49ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:16MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:39MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00ARINick Cousins: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:07MTLTomas Tatar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:34ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:59MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:38MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Danault9:15
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi9:55
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Chaput – Agostino – Hudon7:51
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Shaw – Kotkaniemi9:59
xG 0.36–0.83 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Benn13:48
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly13:53
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Mete11:42
xG 0.47–0.69 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Crouse – Garland7:24
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Schmaltz – Fischer11:04
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Archibald – Cousins9:28
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller11:04
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Chychrun12:17
xG 0.35–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin8:41
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson15:50
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).