Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 116 | 214 | 315 | 645 |
| EDM | 18 | 111 | 19 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:50EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:00TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 14:32TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Erik Cernak, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 4:17TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.39 xG4–2
- P3 6:17EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 15:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 18:35TBLTyler JohnsonENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:14EDMTobias Rieder: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:37EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:29TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:29EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:15TBLRyan Callahan: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:15TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15EDMZack Kassian: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:15TBLCedric Paquette: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point13:23
xG 1.46–0.65 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli8:50
xG 0.78–0.04 (96%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Martel7:12
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde11:49
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:58
xG 1.44–0.47 (76%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev11:30
xG 1.19–0.59 (67%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev2:27
xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian7:28
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid2:44
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:07
xG 0.58–0.85 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Brodziak – Lucic – Puljujarvi3:37
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Garrison – Benning11:30
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gravel – Jones16:04
xG 0.32–0.84 (27%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
- Larsson – Nurse19:40
xG 0.99–2.51 (28%)attempts 19–18goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).