Thu, Dec 27, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 112 | 09 | 131 |
| STL | 06 | 311 | 115 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:03STLRobert ThomasAssists: Vince Dunn, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 10:01STLJay BouwmeesterGWGAssists: David Perron, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 10:55STLPatrick MaroonAssists: Robert Thomas, Robert Bortuzzo · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 17:25BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 13:47STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Alexander Steen, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:16STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:29BUFMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:45STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Girgensons – Thompson6:57
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:50
xG 0.76–0.91 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt4:52
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Elie – Mittelstadt5:54
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Dahlin6:33
xG 0.14–0.26 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella4:59
xG 0.45–0.69 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – McCabe8:33
xG 0.21–0.69 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:04
xG 1.52–0.39 (80%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas11:50
xG 0.97–0.27 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly14:29
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev10:14
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Bortuzzo16:27
xG 1.57–0.30 (84%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Butler – Dunn15:18
xG 1.34–0.49 (73%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko17:57
xG 0.69–0.60 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).