Thu, Dec 27, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Arizona Coyotes 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 011 | 08 | 127 |
| LAK | 113 | 05 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:27ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:39LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Kyle Clifford · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 0:17LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:07ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:24LAKAnze Kopitar: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:45LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Interference2 min
- P2 14:14LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:14ARINick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:14LAKAustin Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28ARIJordan Oesterle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Keller12:20
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kempe – Bunting – Garland7:11
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Schmaltz – Fischer10:41
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse8:11
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin11:32
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson14:26
xG 0.32–0.42 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Goligoski – Chychrun15:53
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:39
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Leipsic10:52
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Amadio – Wagner – Luff6:00
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Toffoli – Kempe9:04
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Walker17:20
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort18:32
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- LaDue – Fantenberg10:54
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).