Sat, Dec 29, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 09 | 118 | 134 |
| DAL | 017 | 316 | 29 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:11DALBlake ComeauAssists: Radek Faksa, Taylor Fedun · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 11:11DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 14:43DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
- P3 0:31DALTyler PitlickAssists: Radek Faksa, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 2:20DALJason SpezzaUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P3 3:52DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:23DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:32DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05DALBrett Ritchie: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:47DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 8:02DALJulius Honka: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:39DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen7:01
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Nyquist8:30
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin9:32
xG 0.22–0.56 (28%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Megan – de la Rose – Ehn8:21
xG 0.27–0.78 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Cholowski6:26
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson13:19
xG 0.98–1.01 (49%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Hronek5:49
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Pitlick – Faksa9:03
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark4:52
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Shore – Gurianov5:45
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Hintz4:55
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Honka12:00
xG 1.05–0.16 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen4:24
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Honka2:05
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).