Sun, Dec 30, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 18 | 314 | 537 |
| ARI | 09 | 18 | 013 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Brandon Pirri, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 16:03VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Brad Hunt, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 16:57ARIAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 4:21VGKCody EakinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 6:58VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Brayden McNabb, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 11:44VGKRyan CarpenterSHAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:31ARIAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:11ARIDarcy Kuemper: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:25VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:29ARIJosh Archibald: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:15VGKAlex Tuch: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:15VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:18VGKBrandon Pirri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:51VGKRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Cousins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Carrier – Carpenter7:45
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch9:12
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Lindberg – Bellemare8:49
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:11
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Hunt12:02
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:53
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:59
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Cousins – Crouse7:02
xG 0.90–0.02 (98%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller9:39
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kempe – Fischer – Garland6:42
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – Hinostroza – Schmaltz7:00
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson12:10
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Connauton – Lyubushkin9:48
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:38
xG 0.22–1.04 (17%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).