Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 114 | 15 | 04 | 223 |
| STL | 17 | 017 | 016 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:08STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:40NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:11NYRBoo NievesGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:50STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:16STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:36NYRAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P1 18:18STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:16NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40NYRTony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:16NYRRyan Strome: Illegal stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Namestnikov8:31
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad11:12
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Strome – Vesey5:13
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nieves – Buchnevich – Howden9:00
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei12:02
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – DeAngelo11:02
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 5–24goals 0–1
- Staal – Pionk15:43
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:24
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly7:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Fabbri – Barbashev6:35
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas6:54
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko13:26
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn8:05
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo7:40
xG 0.33–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).