Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 5, Calgary Flames 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 213 | 29 | 533 |
| CGY | 39 | 27 | 311 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:53SJSLukas RadilAssists: Timo Meier, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 10:55CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 17:24CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 3:55SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 10:47CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 18:22SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 19:33CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 0:48SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.19 xG4–5
- P3 3:00CGYJames NealGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Noah Hanifin · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 5:48CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–7
- P3 6:29CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–8
- P3 13:15SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.06 xG5–8
Penalties (17)
- P1 8:00SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:16SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37CGYElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:51CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:47SJSMelker Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 10:45SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:13CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:19CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:19CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:19CGYRasmus Andersson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:19SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:19SJSEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:37SJSBarclay Goodrow: Instigator2 min
- P3 19:37CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:37SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:37SJSBarclay Goodrow: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:37CGYSam Bennett: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Karlsson – Labanc9:23
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:54
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Couture – Meier – Radil10:38
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen9:26
xG 0.57–0.71 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Braun2:20
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Dillon6:49
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:04
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jankowski – Bennett9:51
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk14:10
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Ryan – Dube6:17
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:00
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 3–3
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington14:33
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:13
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 4–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:04
xG 0.85–0.86 (50%)attempts 14–19goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).