Wed, Jan 2, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 311 | 212 | 535 |
| DET | 213 | 19 | 010 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14DETDarren HelmAssists: Andreas Athanasiou · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:19DETJacob de la RoseAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 6:40CGYSean MonahanAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:59CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:23DETAndreas AthanasiouUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 19:01CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 9:37CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:42CGYMichael FrolikENAssists: Mark Jankowski, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 11:46CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:58DETDarren Helm: Holding2 min
- P2 18:23CGYOliver Kylington: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:52DETFilip Hronek: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 1:06DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42DETJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan15:57
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk6:53
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Jankowski – Ryan2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Ryan – Dube6:06
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Kylington13:23
xG 0.41–0.52 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie18:45
xG 0.69–0.81 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:45
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestde la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen6:00
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin6:25
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou8:11
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi6:01
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen7:15
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – Cholowski11:01
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Jensen2:16
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).