Wed, Jan 2, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 5, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 27 | 314 | 06 | 527 |
| COL | 111 | 114 | 210 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:20COLMatt CalvertAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:14SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 4:15SJSEvander KaneAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 6:18SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 16:33SJSLukas RadilGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 16:49COLTyson JostAssists: J.T. Compher, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 12:12COLTyson BarrieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 16:36COLTyson JostPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:07COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:48SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:52COLPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:33COLMatt Calvert: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:14SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:38SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl9:10
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc6:21
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil8:54
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen8:58
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan6:39
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Burns – Dillon5:06
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun3:47
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Compher – Jost5:45
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto6:58
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Bourque – Dries – O'Connor2:56
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bourque – Kerfoot – Compher2:02
xG 0.11–0.25 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Graves4:32
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:12
xG 0.11–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Graves2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).