Thu, Jan 3, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 37 | 28 | 528 |
| PHI | 08 | 014 | 315 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:56CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:04CARJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 17:20CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Micheal Ferland · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 5:01CARWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Calvin de Haan · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 6:17PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 7:23PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 10:58PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 15:13CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:50PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P1 14:52CARJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:10PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:53CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:18CARDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 16:16PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P3 5:30CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:43CARDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Rask – Svechnikov10:15
xG 0.85–0.51 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Foegele – Bishop2:12
xG 0.00–0.07 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Martinook – Wallmark10:36
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho11:38
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce13:44
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk17:17
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 13–22goals 2–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk11:32
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Lindblom7:43
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Weal11:23
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny4:12
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Weise – Varone – Konecny4:23
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Gostisbehere11:56
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Provorov17:43
xG 0.86–0.76 (53%)attempts 20–18goals 0–2
- Hagg – Folin9:09
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).