Thu, Jan 3, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 316 | 211 | 16 | 633 |
| LAK | 07 | 17 | 116 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 7:53TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P1 14:05TBLRyan CallahanGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 0:25TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 7:55LAKAustin WagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 17:05TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 10:04TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–1
- P3 17:36LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Slap, 0.06 xG6–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:55TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:55LAKDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:20LAKBrendan Leipsic: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 6:11LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:22TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:27LAKAnze Kopitar: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28LAKNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28TBLMathieu Joseph: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:29TBLRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P3 12:50TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P3 16:57TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Erne – Cirelli7:26
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Joseph6:40
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point11:25
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat8:34
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:50
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev14:15
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:03
xG 0.35–0.45 (43%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Carter – Leipsic7:48
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Wagner – Luff4:06
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Kempe – Iafallo3:24
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Scherbak – Luff2:42
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg10:05
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Walker11:27
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Forbort – Walker3:40
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).