Fri, Jan 4, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 117 | 217 | 08 | 342 |
| ANA | 06 | 210 | 011 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Brad Hunt, Tomas Nosek · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:57ANADaniel SprongPPAssists: Josh Mahura, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:15ANACarter RowneyAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Brian Gibbons · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:15VGKTomas NosekAssists: Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 10:46VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:22VGKNick Holden: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:44VGKJon Merrill: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:41ANAAdam Henrique: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 8:12ANARyan Kesler: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:28
xG 0.89–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:28
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek9:44
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch13:05
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill11:57
xG 1.30–0.41 (76%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Holden3:23
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hunt10:54
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – Rowney – Sherwood3:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong3:00
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:01
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Gibbons – Aberg3:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWelinski – Lindholm2:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Montour13:37
xG 0.88–0.78 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm2:53
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).