Sat, Jan 5, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Minnesota Wild 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 313 | 15 | 426 |
| OTT | 115 | 14 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:06OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:41MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Luke Kunin, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:08OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Bobby Ryan, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 14:10MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 16:31MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:07MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 10:10OTTMark StoneAssists: Cody Ceci, Christian Wolanin · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:57OTTMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:31OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:45OTTBobby Ryan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:33MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter7:04
xG 0.43–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Kunin12:37
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 3–0
- Staal – Granlund – Greenway6:36
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Koivu – Niederreiter – Greenway5:18
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:58
xG 0.78–0.62 (56%)attempts 22–22goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Brodin19:59
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
- Seeler – Murphy8:00
xG 0.41–0.68 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Paajarvi – Balcers2:19
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel3:23
xG 0.13–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Boedker – Tierney11:02
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk11:24
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie7:38
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Ceci – Wolanin7:41
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Wolanin3:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).