Sat, Jan 5, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 010 | 112 | 132 |
| BOS | 113 | 115 | 013 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10BOSChris WagnerAssists: Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:00BOSDavid BackesGWGAssists: Tuukka Rask · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 17:22BUFRasmus RistolainenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:32BUFRemi Elie: Interference2 min
- P3 7:42BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:39BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Skinner – Reinhart – Mittelstadt3:40
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Elie – Mittelstadt5:32
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:05
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Sobotka – Sheary – Thompson11:59
xG 0.32–0.89 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin2:15
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen14:19
xG 0.23–0.51 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Pilut16:21
xG 0.45–0.83 (35%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari10:48
xG 1.00–0.40 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – DeBrusk11:27
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:37
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Donato – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson10:07
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo16:58
xG 1.23–0.48 (72%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- Moore – Krug11:28
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk16:33
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).