Sun, Jan 6, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 114 | 04 | 127 |
| WPG | 013 | 25 | 312 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:56DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:56WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brandon Tanev, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:56WPGTyler MyersGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Bryan Little · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 1:15WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:30WPGJosh MorrisseyENAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
- P3 19:42WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:05WPGAdam Lowry: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:21DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 14:27DALTaylor Fedun: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:37WPGKyle Connor: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:03DALRoman Polak: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Condra – Shore7:51
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa9:18
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Janmark – Hintz8:10
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:55
xG 0.15–0.70 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Honka6:32
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Fedun – Lindell4:41
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:28
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev12:08
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:41
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine10:10
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton7:01
xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey18:14
xG 1.04–0.67 (61%)attempts 22–17goals 2–0
- Myers – Chiarot15:21
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Morrow10:43
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).