Sun, Jan 6, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 214 | 210 | 531 |
| PIT | 212 | 116 | 06 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Simon · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:33PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P1 16:23CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 6:46CHIChris KunitzAssists: Marcus Kruger, Carl Dahlstrom · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 9:49PITDerick BrassardAssists: Phil Kessel, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 16:59CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 1:48CHIDylan StromeGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:33CHIJonathan ToewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:52CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:57PITTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:02CHIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Kahun12:48
xG 0.61–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Kruger – Caggiula6:34
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Perlini – DeBrincat – Kampf7:50
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome12:25
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Davidson11:35
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Murphy – Dahlstrom18:07
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Keith – Gustafsson16:29
xG 0.90–1.22 (42%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel13:01
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Pearson11:49
xG 0.95–0.65 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Cullen – Sheahan – Aston-Reese7:33
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Simon10:45
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola13:23
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:28
xG 1.09–0.71 (61%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
- Johnson – Pettersson13:35
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).