Sun, Jan 6, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 313 | 16 | 05 | 424 |
| ANA | 014 | 017 | 08 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Zack Kassian, Caleb Jones · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:05EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 19:49EDMKyle BrodziakSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 7:25EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:46EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:46ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:46EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:46ANAAdam Henrique: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:17EDMCaleb Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:25EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25ANABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:25EDMMilan Lucic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:29EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Delaying game2 min
- P3 17:13ANAAndy Welinski: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Rattie – Gambardella4:32
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi9:04
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Khaira – McDavid2:36
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Khaira – McDavid11:10
xG 0.72–0.83 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Larsson2:46
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones16:45
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
- Russell – Nurse19:23
xG 0.95–1.18 (45%)attempts 15–30goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:34
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Aberg – Kase7:39
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 16–6goals 0–2
- Henrique – Aberg – Sprong3:49
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong7:17
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour14:44
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson16:16
xG 1.06–0.63 (63%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
- Welinski – Lindholm4:20
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).