Tue, Jan 8, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 09 | 07 | 121 |
| BUF | 011 | 515 | 07 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Miles Wood, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:39BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:14BUFC.J. SmithGWGAssists: Johan Larsson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:42BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Zach Bogosian, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P2 16:00BUFJake McCabeSHAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 17:45BUFLawrence PilutAssists: Conor Sheary, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:50BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:29BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:36BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:05BUFEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:05NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:05NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:34BUFLawrence Pilut: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:34NJDMiles Wood: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Stafford – Seney4:33
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Zacha2:18
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood12:28
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Pietila – Noesen – Zacha6:30
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher11:15
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Severson2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy2:29
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Girgensons – Mittelstadt7:47
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Smith11:12
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:08
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Skinner – Thompson11:17
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin16:09
xG 0.87–0.40 (68%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Scandella – McCabe14:06
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut13:09
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).