Tue, Jan 8, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 25 | 010 | 29 | 424 |
| NYI | 17 | 012 | 212 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:10CARSaku MaenalanenAssists: Victor Rask, Warren Foegele · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:54CARGreg McKeggAssists: Micheal Ferland, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:50NYIDevon ToewsAssists: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 17:18CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Greg McKegg · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:53CARJaccob SlavinPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:01NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:05CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:45NYIMichael Dal Colle: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:03CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:55NYILeo Komarov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – McKegg – Ferland11:29
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Rask – Maenalanen – Foegele8:06
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho12:54
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:57
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk15:59
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk14:32
xG 0.71–1.10 (39%)attempts 11–18goals 3–1
- Slavin – Pesce15:09
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson10:32
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 14–3goals 3–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier11:00
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle9:30
xG 0.47–0.48 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:22
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:40
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:18
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy16:04
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).