Tue, Jan 8, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 2, San Jose Sharks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 110 | 05 | 222 |
| SJS | 312 | 211 | 213 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37SJSEvander KaneAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:57SJSMarcus SorensenUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG0–2
- P1 14:35EDMAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 15:24SJSJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Tim Heed, Barclay Goodrow · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 6:32SJSEvander KaneAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 10:18EDMMilan LucicAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 15:37SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 1:04SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brenden Dillon, Lukas Radil · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 10:44SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Evander Kane, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:57EDMAlexander Petrovic: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:34SJSTim Heed: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:19EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:41SJSJoakim Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:53EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:33SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56EDMKris Russell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl3:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi11:30
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Spooner4:15
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kassian – Khaira – McDavid2:33
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Gravel3:52
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Russell – Gravel2:25
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gravel – Larsson5:40
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Hertl9:37
xG 1.09–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–1goals 3–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil11:59
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc9:05
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen12:46
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon13:13
xG 1.31–0.04 (97%)attempts 24–5goals 3–0
- Burns – Simek15:54
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Karlsson2:30
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).