Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 013 | 118 | 138 |
| PHI | 06 | 26 | 010 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 8:51PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 17:09DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:30DALMattias Janmark: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:30PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:27DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:03PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:40DALTaylor Fedun: Holding2 min
- P3 8:08PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Janmark5:04
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Janmark – Hintz5:20
xG 0.47–0.09 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Condra – Benn3:59
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:49
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Honka6:13
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Honka3:46
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen6:01
xG 0.49–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick8:35
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom10:31
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:24
xG 0.58–0.94 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Weise – Varone – Raffl5:46
xG 0.06–0.52 (10%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Gostisbehere11:18
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – Hagg4:54
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov18:55
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).