Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Arizona Coyotes 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 26 | 18 | 11 | 422 |
| VAN | 05 | 214 | 114 | 03 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:26ARIRichard PanikAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Brad Richardson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 2:23VANSven BaertschiAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:05ARINick CousinsAssists: Richard Panik, Vinnie Hinostroza · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 19:27VANAdam GaudetteAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 9:57ARIConor GarlandAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 15:35VANSven BaertschiAssists: Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 4:10ARIRichard PanikGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:58VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:52VANBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:39ARIDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Dauphin – Crouse9:36
xG 0.73–0.08 (91%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Panik – Hinostroza9:00
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stepan – Fischer – Keller11:59
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland10:03
xG 0.39–0.84 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Lyubushkin13:10
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson16:34
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oesterle15:27
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser7:22
xG 0.87–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Virtanen – Gaudette5:40
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Granlund8:17
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Goldobin – Boeser8:31
xG 0.03–0.40 (8%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton16:55
xG 0.97–0.68 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev15:50
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Stecher16:53
xG 0.61–0.63 (50%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).