Sat, Jan 12, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 221 | 28 | 537 |
| MIN | 111 | 12 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:00MINLuke KuninAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:17MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 0:45DETThomas VanekAssists: Anthony Mantha, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 15:10DETThomas VanekGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 0:47DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 8:38DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:14DETAnthony Mantha: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 2:43MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:35MINGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:11DETMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:57DETThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
- P3 14:33MINEric Staal: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Mantha9:13
xG 0.70–0.07 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin13:52
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou7:50
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn8:31
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Hronek12:44
xG 1.05–0.09 (92%)attempts 19–4goals 3–0
- Kronwall – Green13:08
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Jensen2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Brown – Eriksson Ek9:13
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:05
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Parise – Kunin4:32
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Greenway6:55
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Seeler9:52
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin17:06
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:54
xG 0.45–1.04 (30%)attempts 15–20goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).