Sat, Jan 12, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 210 | 112 | 11 | 434 |
| CHI | 210 | 18 | 05 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:20CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:34VGKAlex TuchAssists: Max Pacioretty, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 7:22CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 19:06VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 15:56VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 1:19VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Brandon Pirri, Paul Stastny · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:16VGKOscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:36CHIArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:49VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:58VGKJon Merrill: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:13CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Tuch12:03
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 2–1
- Pirri – Karlsson – Marchessault12:56
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter10:53
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek5:39
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:02
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:57
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Merrill16:49
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Anisimov – Kane – Kruger2:22
xG 0.02–0.05 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden6:19
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Saad – Caggiula – Kampf11:14
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:58
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook2:14
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Jokiharju10:30
xG 0.51–0.61 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Murphy – Dahlstrom15:58
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 8–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).