Sun, Jan 13, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 113 | 08 | 03 | 331 |
| WPG | 111 | 111 | 15 | 17 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19ANABrian GibbonsAssists: Brandon Montour, Carter Rowney · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:14ANARickard RakellAssists: Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:00WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 2:24WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 15:48ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Sprong, Carter Rowney · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 14:05WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Brandon Tanev, Andrew Copp · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 4:49WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:08ANAJake Dotchin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:41WPGAdam Lowry: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:38ANANick Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:45ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:33WPGBrendan Lemieux: Holding2 min
- P3 6:17ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:17WPGBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Rowney – Sprong7:41
xG 0.37–0.00 (99%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell12:33
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:14
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kesler – Gibbons – Sherwood5:26
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson14:50
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 2–2
- Dotchin – Larsson6:37
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm2:09
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Roslovic – Laine8:49
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev8:16
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev2:49
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton4:44
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morrow – Niku13:03
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Chiarot15:02
xG 0.36–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–17goals 2–2
- Trouba – Morrissey17:33
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).