Mon, Jan 14, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 111 | 04 | 11 | 322 |
| BOS | 111 | 015 | 117 | 00 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:27MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jeff Petry, Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:09MTLPaul ByronSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:22BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 0:15MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Max Domi, Paul Byron · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:16MTLMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:46MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:46BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P1 16:10BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:10MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:11MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:11BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55MTLMichael Chaput: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Chaput
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Drouin8:08
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Byron – Tatar – Kotkaniemi6:43
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Byron – Tatar – Danault3:09
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Domi9:31
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn2:37
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete15:16
xG 0.46–0.76 (38%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly16:37
xG 0.55–0.96 (36%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:20
xG 0.94–0.38 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Krejci – Donato – Heinen3:58
xG 0.40–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Donato – DeBrusk4:07
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari11:53
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo12:20
xG 1.17–0.46 (72%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy4:13
xG 0.77–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk10:08
xG 0.58–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).