Mon, Jan 14, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 112 | 114 | 438 |
| PHI | 214 | 36 | 27 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 8:26MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 12:04PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:48PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 2:23MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Eric Staal, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 4:59PHINolan PatrickAssists: Scott Laughton, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 15:28PHINolan PatrickAssists: Travis Sanheim, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 19:54PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 8:18MINRyan SuterAssists: Eric Staal, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 10:43PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Laughton, Nolan Patrick · Snap, 0.19 xG4–6
- P3 18:43PHIJames van RiemsdykENAssists: Claude Giroux, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:08PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:09MINGreg Pateryn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:04MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game bench2 min
- P1 16:13MINMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:22MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:59PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min
- P2 15:59MINDevan Dubnyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:01PHIClaude Giroux: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:33MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:10PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Greenway7:03
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Foligno – Eriksson Ek5:18
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund12:09
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Kunin7:45
xG 0.39–0.69 (36%)attempts 13–8goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:16
xG 1.32–0.48 (73%)attempts 23–14goals 0–2
- Pateryn – Brodin12:56
xG 0.87–0.70 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
- Prosser – Seeler8:29
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Laughton – Patrick7:51
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 3–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom9:47
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Varone – Raffl4:49
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny10:16
xG 0.18–1.83 (9%)attempts 6–25goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere9:17
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov14:05
xG 0.29–0.82 (26%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Gudas – Hagg12:07
xG 0.31–1.09 (22%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).