Wed, Jan 16, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 423 |
| CGY | 113 | 08 | 212 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 9:45BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:49CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 7:34BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 10:56BUFJake McCabeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:34CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Sean Monahan, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 1:10BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:08CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:11BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:01CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:39BUFConor Sheary: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:19BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:55CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Sheary – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:43
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues11:15
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:40
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:05
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Pilut14:39
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Scandella – McCabe14:02
xG 0.31–0.51 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin16:51
xG 0.08–0.57 (13%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:24
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk2:45
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik6:53
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Mangiapane2:35
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie17:20
xG 0.93–0.61 (60%)attempts 22–15goals 0–2
- Prout – Kylington11:40
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:50
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).