Fri, Jan 18, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 213 | 06 | 15 | 335 |
| ARI | 114 | 04 | 113 | 02 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:58PITJuuso RiikolaPPAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Dominik Simon · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:38PITJake GuentzelAssists: Matt Cullen, Garrett Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 14:34ARIDerek StepanAssists: Richard Panik, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 4:10PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:36PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:59PITRiley Sheahan: Interference2 min
- P1 11:23PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:23PITMatt Murray: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:19ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:26ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:09ARIConor Garland: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:51ARIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Sheahan13:02
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blandisi5:27
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:39
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Brassard – Pearson – Simon12:34
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola12:40
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:38
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Johnson – Pettersson14:35
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Stepan – Panik – Hinostroza11:16
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland8:26
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Weal – Fischer – Keller8:03
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse10:37
xG 0.16–0.77 (18%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Chychrun2:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson13:29
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin10:20
xG 0.07–0.38 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).