Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 018 | 18 | 131 |
| COL | 116 | 610 | 014 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:57COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:32COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:27COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Calvert · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 7:18COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 8:34COLSheldon DriesSHAssists: Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 14:35COLMikko RantanenAssists: Matt Nieto, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–6
- P2 15:49COLColin WilsonAssists: Carl Soderberg, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–7
- P3 7:52LAKIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:40LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:58LAKDustin Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22LAKAnze Kopitar: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:18COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:29LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:00COLMatt Calvert: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:00LAKDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:33COLIan Cole: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:54LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:05LAKDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:38COLSheldon Dries: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:38LAKDerek Forbort: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Toffoli – Kempe8:06
xG 0.77–0.15 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner4:43
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Brown – Kopitar7:46
xG 0.58–0.45 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Hagelin – Clifford2:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:10
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort10:47
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Martinez – Doughty3:36
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nieto – Kerfoot2:45
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher9:48
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Calvert – Kerfoot – Andrighetto5:10
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Nieto – Dries5:14
xG 0.05–0.69 (7%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie7:36
xG 1.00–0.12 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Barrie – Girard2:25
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard4:42
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).