Sat, Jan 19, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 08 | 217 | 229 |
| DAL | 111 | 217 | 111 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53DALBrett RitchiePPAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:22DALBlake ComeauAssists: Esa Lindell, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 13:36DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Roman Polak, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 3:25WPGBrendan LemieuxAssists: Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 3:46WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:15DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:07DALJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P1 6:54WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:46DALConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:46WPGBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34WPGDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43WPGJoe Morrow: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23DALRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:50WPGJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:45DALJamie Benn: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:46DALRoope Hintz: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:37WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- P3 15:35DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P3 16:52WPGPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00DALRadek Faksa: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Lemieux – Appleton6:24
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev2:07
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic2:18
xG 0.11–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev3:42
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey11:23
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Myers – Niku3:30
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Morrow2:58
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Benn – Faksa8:04
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Hintz – Gurianov3:52
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Cogliano – Dickinson5:38
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:28
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell11:27
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Polak – Lindell3:43
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen8:00
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).