Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 16 | 06 | 120 |
| MIN | 212 | 015 | 04 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:07MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:36MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Pontus Aberg, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 3:07CBJArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Seth Jones, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:20MINVictor Rask: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:18CBJScott Harrington: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:06MINZach Parise: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:13MINLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34CBJCam Atkinson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:30CBJSeth Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:37MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:08CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Panarin – Dubois7:24
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Bjorkstrand3:37
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Sedlak3:12
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson6:29
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:15
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Savard – Harrington8:25
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Murray – Nutivaara12:45
xG 0.33–1.12 (23%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund14:17
xG 0.94–0.34 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Greenway10:37
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin4:59
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Aberg10:12
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:24
xG 1.29–0.37 (78%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Seeler7:50
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin3:55
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).