Sun, Jan 20, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Anaheim Ducks 0, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 05 | 08 | 06 | 019 |
| NYI | 212 | 15 | 011 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50NYICal ClutterbuckPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:56NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:31NYILeo KomarovAssists: Devon Toews, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:28ANADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:09ANABrian Gibbons: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:37ANAHampus Lindholm: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Rakell – Shore2:49
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Carrick – Ritchie10:17
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Jones2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWelinski – Montour4:07
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Larsson2:28
xG 0.04–0.04 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Lindholm2:42
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson13:12
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:03
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:39
xG 0.40–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle9:25
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy19:09
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:30
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:37
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).