Mon, Jan 21, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 311 | 19 | 427 |
| COL | 013 | 112 | 011 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:01NSHNick BoninoAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:35NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 16:43COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 17:58NSHRoman JosiAssists: Austin Watson, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 17:07NSHRyan EllisENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:43NSHColin Blackwell: Elbowing2 min
- P1 4:58NSHFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:51COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:51NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:14NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:14COLMatt Nieto: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:20COLTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:51COLNikita Zadorov: Kneeing2 min
- P2 3:30NSHNick Bonino: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:12NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:31COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:35NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P3 18:07COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:07NSHMatt Irwin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Watson6:43
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau5:37
xG 0.14–0.19 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Sissons – Arvidsson9:25
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Blackwell – Fiala8:48
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm10:35
xG 0.47–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Subban – Josi15:53
xG 0.92–1.02 (47%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm3:03
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Kerfoot – Andrighetto8:28
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:24
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Bourque – Nieto – Dries4:52
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher10:23
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Nemeth2:38
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov3:20
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie3:13
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).