Mon, Jan 21, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 2, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 214 | 08 | 229 |
| FLA | 16 | 17 | 417 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:21FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:21SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:07FLAMike MathesonAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Frank Vatrano · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:20SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 2:27FLAKeith YandlePPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 2:36FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.26 xG2–4
- P3 7:22FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 19:22FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:28FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:26SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:26FLAMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24SJSEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:19FLAMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56SJSEvander Kane: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:02SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 15:02FLAJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14SJSEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:14SJSEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Goodrow – Labanc – Radil10:01
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:14
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Karlsson10:17
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier11:56
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHeed – Ryan10:34
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Heed3:28
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek9:17
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Malgin – Borgstrom6:14
xG 0.22–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hawryluk – Malgin – Borgstrom3:54
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Hawryluk3:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau6:02
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad17:58
xG 0.92–0.65 (58%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson14:28
xG 0.49–0.64 (44%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Brown – McCoshen11:09
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).