Tue, Jan 22, 2019·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 17 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 236 |
| CHI | 09 | 218 | 010 | 03 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19NYIValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:05CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 7:33NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:38CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:13CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:46NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:31NYIValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14CHIPatrick Kane: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier12:08
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle11:15
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:17
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson14:28
xG 0.70–1.16 (38%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:29
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews17:17
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:51
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Saad – Kampf10:37
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun11:50
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula17:03
xG 0.61–0.71 (46%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Hayden5:26
xG 0.24–0.43 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy3:17
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson3:48
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson2:13
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).