Wed, Jan 23, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 119 | 115 | 344 |
| TOR | 18 | 219 | 310 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:47WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:34TORNazem KadriAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Michal Kempny · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:11TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: William Nylander, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 16:19TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 2:10TORNazem KadriGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Martin Marincin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 10:15TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown, William Nylander · Slap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 17:14WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 19:27TORMitch MarnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (2)
- P1 16:49TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly8:49
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:59
xG 0.92–0.60 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Boyd – Stephenson – Burakovsky8:12
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:56
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Kempny20:25
xG 1.39–1.18 (54%)attempts 28–23goals 2–3
- Carlson – Orlov18:18
xG 1.19–0.99 (55%)attempts 15–29goals 0–1
- Bowey – Siegenthaler12:58
xG 0.75–0.65 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Kapanen12:34
xG 1.05–0.82 (56%)attempts 22–16goals 0–2
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander10:34
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 3–0
- Gauthier – Moore – Lindholm9:15
xG 0.13–0.49 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Marner – Matthews15:36
xG 0.65–1.13 (36%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly21:49
xG 1.19–1.14 (51%)attempts 32–22goals 0–2
- Dermott – Zaitsev17:26
xG 1.20–1.33 (47%)attempts 21–20goals 2–0
- Marincin – Ozhiganov11:52
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).