Wed, Jan 23, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 28 | 18 | 528 |
| COL | 211 | 06 | 05 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Colin Wilson, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 6:50MINEric StaalAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:40COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 16:27MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 7:24MINEric StaalPPGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P2 19:37MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 8:13MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Pontus Aberg · Slap, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:34MINGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51COLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 9:03MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 12:23COLTyson Barrie: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 6:31COLSven Andrighetto: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 7:50COLPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Greenway10:54
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:36
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin8:07
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Parise – Rask – Aberg9:20
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:23
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Seeler4:14
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin10:13
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Kerfoot – Andrighetto6:49
xG 0.34–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:48
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher10:21
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Bourque – Nieto – Dries5:58
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Girard3:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Graves6:50
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Barrie – Graves3:07
xG 0.03–0.07 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).