Tue, Jan 29, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 09 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 427 |
| BOS | 220 | 05 | 113 | 01 | 0 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:49BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:53WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:33BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:27WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:01WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 11:39BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:30WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min
- P1 13:48BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:33BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:01WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:47WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:47BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16WPGBrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor17:07
xG 0.53–0.35 (61%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev9:35
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine6:21
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton8:33
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Morrissey18:33
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
- Myers – Kulikov3:34
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Morrow2:34
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk10:50
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:55
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 22–14goals 2–1
- Backes – Heinen – Frederic8:14
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari11:57
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy3:48
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo12:01
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy14:52
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).