Tue, Jan 29, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 316 | 16 | 112 | 534 |
| CBJ | 113 | 312 | 012 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 3:17CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Ryan Murray, Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 7:59BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 9:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 0:21CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
- P2 0:42BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 16:52CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Scott Harrington, Josh Anderson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P2 19:27CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Murray, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 2:12BUFConor ShearyGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:12CBJArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:37BUFConor Sheary: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:18CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:17BUFTage Thompson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt9:27
xG 1.71–0.42 (80%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel15:19
xG 1.78–0.57 (76%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:51
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson10:32
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin14:53
xG 2.62–0.60 (81%)attempts 29–12goals 4–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen17:09
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Scandella13:08
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anderson – Bjorkstrand3:50
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen5:06
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg4:35
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Anderson – Wennberg4:21
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Werenski7:31
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Savard – Harrington7:34
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski11:12
xG 0.58–0.84 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).