Thu, Jan 31, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 112 | 27 | 425 |
| NJD | 28 | 05 | 19 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NJDNico HischierPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 16:18NJDMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Brian Boyle, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 19:58NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 16:36NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:43NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 5:36NJDEgor YakovlevAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 15:24NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:00NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:51NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:43NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:58NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53NJDMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11NJDMiles Wood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:22NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:23NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad14:46
xG 1.11–0.11 (91%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Strome – Namestnikov – Chytil7:58
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hayes – Fast – Buchnevich3:57
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McLeod – Nieves – Buchnevich2:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk12:29
xG 0.97–0.53 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Smith12:08
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei12:17
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Stafford – Rooney4:00
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier9:05
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Zacha – Seney – Bratt8:07
xG 0.03–0.42 (7%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood13:28
xG 0.07–0.89 (7%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Santini – Yakovlev10:57
xG 0.27–0.58 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Butcher – Mueller11:44
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson14:15
xG 0.25–0.89 (22%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).