Fri, Feb 1, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 315 | 38 | 730 |
| BUF | 014 | 112 | 217 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:50CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:06CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–0
- P2 18:05BUFJack EichelAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:39CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: David Kampf, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 3:39BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jeff Skinner, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 7:16BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 11:24CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 17:13CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Drake Caggiula, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–3
- P3 19:22CHIBrandon SaadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:15CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:49BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 18:49CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:53BUFLawrence Pilut: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:22CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:44CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Saad – Kampf9:22
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun9:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Hayden6:51
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula14:33
xG 0.62–1.07 (37%)attempts 15–22goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Gustafsson – Forsling14:26
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Murphy – Dahlstrom15:52
xG 0.78–0.78 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 3–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:37
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sobotka – Thompson6:16
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sheary – Eichel4:50
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Skinner – Reinhart2:50
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Elie6:01
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen2:21
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Scandella2:38
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).