Fri, Feb 1, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Islanders 0 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 014 | 010 | 016 | 01 | 1 | 141 |
| NYI | 011 | 010 | 011 | 04 | 0 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:53NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:11TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45TBLCedric Paquette: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:48TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:23TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Gourde11:16
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli10:34
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph8:20
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point14:28
xG 0.65–1.13 (36%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman15:20
xG 1.33–0.72 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:29
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:07
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:28
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle10:05
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson10:27
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier12:42
xG 0.33–1.03 (24%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:24
xG 1.06–0.64 (62%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy19:59
xG 0.85–0.59 (59%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:16
xG 0.23–1.03 (18%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).