Fri, Feb 1, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Calgary Flames 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 17 | 110 | 330 |
| WSH | 213 | 116 | 111 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00WSHNic DowdAssists: John Carlson, Michal Kempny · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:37CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:24WSHDmitrij JaskinAssists: Lars Eller, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 0:54WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 2:17CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Derek Ryan, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:01CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 19:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P2 8:29CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:33CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min
- P3 8:29WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:02CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00WSHBrooks Orpik: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:57
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:00
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:06
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan4:37
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:56
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 31–11goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin9:12
xG 0.92–0.57 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Brodie – Andersson2:18
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Jaskin5:49
xG 0.87–0.03 (96%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Connolly – Jaskin3:28
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Burakovsky5:59
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana9:33
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Siegenthaler11:54
xG 1.41–0.24 (86%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Carlson – Kempny15:45
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 13–25goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Orlov16:12
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).