Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Edmonton Oilers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 218 | 117 | 19 | 00 | 444 |
| PHI | 17 | 112 | 217 | 13 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 8:03EDMTy RattieAssists: Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:33EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:19EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Kevin Gravel, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 16:54PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 4:07EDMZack KassianSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 4:34PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 11:02PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 2:01PHINolan PatrickGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:44EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 4:14PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:26PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:32PHIScott Laughton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:29EDMMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05EDMKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:46EDMKris Russell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:46PHIMichael Raffl: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:00EDMMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42EDMZack Kassian: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl8:47
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rattie – McDavid10:37
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira9:48
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Cave – Puljujarvi7:23
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGravel – Larsson15:14
xG 0.59–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Manning – Benning8:23
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:18
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Laughton – Patrick8:21
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier3:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom5:37
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny9:41
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere13:09
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov16:27
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
- Gudas – Hagg12:50
xG 0.19–0.94 (17%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).