Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 213 | 08 | 09 | 230 |
| TOR | 113 | 211 | 09 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:20PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Garrett Wilson, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:25TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Travis Dermott, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 9:36TORTravis DermottAssists: Jake Gardiner, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:06TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:11TORConnor Brown: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:47PITMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:23PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel3:18
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Pearson – McCann10:03
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bjugstad – Simon2:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger7:32
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola15:07
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin17:01
xG 0.91–0.87 (51%)attempts 23–19goals 0–1
- Johnson – Pettersson14:34
xG 0.17–0.82 (17%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kapanen – Matthews12:34
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 23–11goals 2–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:16
xG 0.90–0.53 (63%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Gauthier – Lindholm7:12
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander10:21
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Rielly14:28
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Dermott2:14
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Dermott11:30
xG 0.40–0.37 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).