Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 213 | 04 | 323 |
| NYR | 08 | 19 | 116 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mathieu Joseph · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:41TBLErik CernakAssists: Ryan Callahan, Cedric Paquette · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 8:33TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 16:17NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 6:49NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Henrik Lundqvist · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:54NYRAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31TBLDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:08TBLJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:38TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:09TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Joseph10:12
xG 1.05–0.09 (92%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne9:06
xG 0.63–0.59 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov12:25
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli8:39
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:42
xG 1.59–0.61 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Coburn – Cernak2:07
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Coburn – Stralman13:31
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad13:01
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Fast – Buchnevich11:49
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Buchnevich2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Strome – Namestnikov – Vesey2:40
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei15:59
xG 0.94–0.49 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Pionk12:07
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Smith13:38
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).